Ransomware remains one of the most damaging cyber threats facing organisations worldwide. In 2026, the ransomware landscape is changing rapidly: while more organisations, including those across Nigeria and the wider African region, are investing in stronger cybersecurity defences and refusing to pay ransom demands, cybercriminals are adapting their strategies in response.

Instead of targeting large numbers of victims indiscriminately, many ransomware groups are now focusing on fewer, high-value organisations that are more likely to suffer severe financial and operational consequences from prolonged downtime. This shift has resulted in higher ransom demands and, in some cases, larger payouts, even though the overall percentage of organisations choosing to pay has declined.

This article explores the latest ransomware trends, why attackers are changing tactics, and what organisations, particularly those operating under Nigerian and regional regulatory frameworks, can do to strengthen their cyber resilience.

Understanding Modern Ransomware

Ransomware is malicious software that prevents organisations from accessing their systems or data until a ransom demand is met. Unlike early ransomware campaigns that simply encrypted files, today’s attacks often involve multiple stages, including:

• Unauthorized network access
• Data theft
• Privilege escalation
• Lateral movement across systems
• Encryption of critical files
• Threats to leak sensitive information

This combination of encryption and data theft is commonly referred to as double extortion. For Nigerian organisations, a data-theft component adds a further layer of exposure: stolen personal data implicates the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA) 2023 and its breach-notification obligations to the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC), in addition to any ransom demand.

Why Ransomware Attacks Continue to Increase

1. Expanding Digital Infrastructure

Organisations now rely heavily on cloud computing, remote work environments, SaaS platforms, internet-connected devices, and third-party vendors. These technologies improve productivity but also increase the attack surface, a trend playing out across Nigerian banking, fintech, and oil and gas sectors as digital transformation accelerates.

2. Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS)

Cybercriminals no longer need advanced technical expertise to launch ransomware campaigns. Many ransomware groups operate Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) platforms, where developers provide ransomware tools to affiliates in exchange for a share of the profits. This business model has significantly increased the number of attacks worldwide, lowering the barrier to entry for threat actors targeting African enterprises as well.

3. Sophisticated Attack Techniques

Modern attackers frequently use phishing campaigns, credential theft, exploitation of unpatched vulnerabilities, supply chain attacks, Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) attacks, and cloud account compromises. These methods allow attackers to gain deeper access before deploying ransomware.

Why Fewer Organisations Are Paying

Although attacks continue to rise, many organisations are refusing to pay. Several factors explain this trend.

Better Backup Strategies

Organisations increasingly maintain offline backups, immutable backups, and regularly tested restoration procedures, allowing businesses to recover systems without relying on attackers.

Improved Incident Response

Many organisations now have incident response teams, disaster recovery plans, business continuity strategies, cyber insurance requirements, and Security Operations Centers (SOCs). Prepared organisations are often better positioned to recover without paying.

Law Enforcement and Regulatory Guidance

Law enforcement agencies in many countries generally discourage paying ransoms because payment does not guarantee data recovery and may encourage further criminal activity. In Nigeria, this guidance is reinforced by the compliance expectations of the NDPC under the NDPA 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for financial institutions, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), and, for telecoms operators, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC). Organisations subject to these frameworks are expected to prioritise resilience and reporting over ransom payment.

Why Ransomware Payouts Are Increasing

Although fewer organisations pay, some ransomware groups receive larger payments by targeting organisations where downtime has severe consequences. Examples include hospitals, financial institutions, critical infrastructure, manufacturing companies, cloud service providers, and logistics companies. These organisations may face significant operational disruption, creating pressure to restore services quickly.

Attackers also spend more time inside networks before launching attacks, allowing them to identify critical systems and increase the impact of the incident. In Nigeria, sectors regulated by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the CBN are increasingly recognised as high-value targets given the operational and economic consequences of prolonged downtime.

The Rise of Double and Triple Extortion

Traditional ransomware focused on encrypting files. Modern attacks often involve additional pressure tactics.

Double Extortion

• Steal sensitive data
• Encrypt systems
• Threaten to publish stolen information if payment is refused

Triple Extortion

Some attackers expand their pressure by targeting customers, business partners, or suppliers connected to the victim organisation. This increases reputational and operational risk, and for Nigerian businesses handling consumer data, it can trigger additional scrutiny from the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) where consumer harm results from a breach.

Industries Most Frequently Targeted

• Healthcare
• Financial Services
• Government
• Manufacturing
• Education
• Retail
• Technology
• Energy
• Telecommunications

Organisations that manage valuable data or provide essential services remain attractive targets, a pattern consistent with the banking, fintech, and oil and gas clients most commonly engaged in VAPT and compliance advisory work across Nigeria.

Business Impact Beyond the Ransom

The cost of a ransomware incident often extends beyond the ransom demand. Organisations may experience business interruption, revenue loss, regulatory investigations, customer notification costs, legal expenses, digital forensic investigations, data recovery costs, and reputational damage. Even when backups are available, recovery can take days or weeks. For Nigerian entities, NDPA-mandated breach notification timelines add a compliance dimension to an already costly recovery process.

Common Entry Points

Phishing Emails

Employees may unknowingly open malicious attachments or click fraudulent links.

Weak Passwords

Compromised or reused credentials remain a common attack vector.

Unpatched Systems

Known software vulnerabilities continue to be exploited when updates are delayed.

Third-Party Vendors

A compromised supplier can provide attackers with indirect access to customer environments.

Remote Access Services

Poorly secured VPNs or remote desktop services can expose organisations to attack.

How Organisations Can Reduce Ransomware Risk

Implement Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA)

Require MFA for privileged accounts, remote access, and cloud services.

Maintain Secure Backups

Follow the 3-2-1 backup strategy: three copies of data, two different storage media, and one offline or immutable copy. Regularly test restoration procedures.

Patch Vulnerabilities Promptly

Maintain an effective vulnerability management programme to reduce exposure to known exploits.

Deploy Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR)

EDR solutions help detect suspicious activity before ransomware spreads throughout the network.

Conduct Employee Security Awareness Training

Educate staff on phishing emails, social engineering, password security, and safe web browsing. Human awareness remains one of the strongest defences.

Segment Critical Systems

Network segmentation limits the ability of attackers to move laterally after gaining initial access.

Monitor Security Continuously

Use Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), security monitoring, threat intelligence, and log analysis. Early detection significantly improves response capabilities.

Building Cyber Resilience

Rather than focusing only on preventing attacks, organisations should strengthen their overall resilience. Key components include regular risk assessments, incident response planning, disaster recovery testing, third-party risk management, executive tabletop exercises, penetration testing, and continuous monitoring. Organisations that prepare before an incident recover more effectively, and those aligning with ISO 27001 controls are typically better positioned to demonstrate this resilience to regulators and clients alike.

Emerging Ransomware Trends in 2026

Cybersecurity professionals expect continued growth in AI-assisted phishing campaigns, cloud-targeted ransomware, supply chain attacks, double extortion techniques, data theft before encryption, faster attack execution, automated reconnaissance, and targeted attacks against critical infrastructure. Security teams, including those supporting Nigerian public sector and enterprise clients, should continuously review their defences to address these evolving threats.

Best Practices for Businesses

• Enable Multi-Factor Authentication
• Apply security patches quickly
• Maintain secure, tested backups
• Limit administrative privileges
• Monitor network activity
• Conduct regular vulnerability assessments
• Perform penetration testing
• Train employees regularly
• Assess third-party cybersecurity risks
• Review and test incident response plans

Final Thoughts

Ransomware continues to evolve as one of the most significant cybersecurity challenges facing organisations. Although more businesses are refusing to pay ransom demands thanks to stronger cybersecurity practices and better recovery capabilities, attackers are responding by targeting organisations where operational disruption carries a higher cost.

The future of ransomware defence lies in cyber resilience, not just preventing attacks, but ensuring organisations can detect, respond to, and recover from incidents with minimal business impact.

Organisations that invest in proactive security measures, employee awareness, robust backup strategies, and continuous monitoring, while aligning with applicable Nigerian and international regulatory requirements, will be better prepared for the evolving ransomware landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are ransomware attacks increasing?

Attackers benefit from expanding digital environments, Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS), cloud adoption, and sophisticated attack techniques that make it easier to compromise organisations.

Why are fewer companies paying ransoms?

Many organisations have improved their backup strategies, incident response capabilities, and overall cyber resilience, reducing the need to pay attackers.

Why are ransom demands becoming larger?

Attackers increasingly focus on high-value organisations where downtime has significant financial or operational consequences, allowing them to demand larger payments.

What is the best defence against ransomware?

A layered security approach, including Multi-Factor Authentication, secure backups, employee awareness training, vulnerability management, endpoint protection, and tested incident response plans, provides the strongest protection.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jackson Godwin is a Cybersecurity Analyst and Penetration Tester at Jackson Technology, a cybersecurity and data protection consulting firm based in Abuja, Nigeria, serving enterprise clients across banking, fintech, oil and gas, and the public sector. His expertise spans vulnerability assessment and penetration testing (VAPT), cloud security, and compliance advisory covering ISO 27001, the NDPA 2023, and GDPR. He is also affiliated with TechTrain Academy, where he supports cybersecurity education for African professionals.

info@jacksontechnology.com.ng  |  jacksontechnology.com.ng